The Capacity to Forecast Enterprise Insolvency on the Polish Market Using the Precursory Altman Z-Score Model (1968)

Theoretical background: Many years have passed since the publication of first multidimensional model (Z-score) early bankruptcy warning by E.I. Altman in 1968. New models emerged different countries. In this research stream, share econometric modelling based on assumptions discriminant analysis, i.e. MDA – Multiple Discriminant Analysis one classification methods categorised as empirical-induction methods, plays a particularly important role. Purpose article: The article assesses capacity Z-Score to forecast (1 year ahead) insolvency enterprises Polish market. Research methods: Due sample size (i.e. over 2,700 bankrupt entities Poland), study constitutes broadest studies carried out so far assessment predictive economy. Main findings: authors, conducting area, put forward hypothesis that variables were well identified and introduced discriminatory economy work equally other Despite economic differences these countries phases business cycle, financial-analysis indicators allow effective forecasting enterprise are valid for economies. discriminant-function variability ranges characteristic failing healthy change but themselves good predictors.